突然！俄乌事态超预期！我们恐怕要丢掉幻想了！！
2022/3/17 卢氏杂谈
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1.惊心动魄的金融围猎
俄乌战争爆发之后，大众的目光主要聚焦在战事进展上，其实，在这场战场背后的金融围猎才更加惊心动魄。
第一个出场的主角是俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行。
这是一家总部位于俄罗斯联邦首都莫斯科的金融机构。该银行拥有2500万私人客户(以俄罗斯客户为主)、130万商业客户以及大约19000间分支机构，在俄罗斯私人和商业金融领域均处于领先地位，为东欧地区最大的商业银行。
(来源：俄罗斯卫星通讯社)
2021年，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行收入432亿美元，净利润为105亿美元，总资产为4872亿美元，在英国上市，战争爆发之前市值大致是在1100亿美元左右。
应该说俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行是一家经营良好、现金流也很充沛的优质银行。
所以，德意志交易所旗下Qontigo指数将俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行作为成分股纳入指数。因为这个原因，欧洲很多金融基金都多多少少配置了这家银行的股票。
在俄乌战争前，大致有273000家机构与个人投资者持有约39.75%的股票，其余60.25%股份是俄罗斯央行持有。
但是，在俄乌战争爆发之后，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行股价开始暴跌，从最高点21.63元/股到3月2日跌到只剩0.045元/股，市值从1100亿美元跌到只剩2.43亿美元，也就是只剩点骨头渣了。
问题是这种暴跌是很不正常的，毕竟不管怎么样，这家银行在过去每年都有上百亿美元利润，净资产也有700亿美元。
即使这家银行明天破产，将资产拆散了出售，怎么也能值几百亿美元，怎么可能市值只有2.43亿美元呢？
资本市场对其严重低估的逻辑是什么呢？
我找境外做投资的朋友问了一下，原来是因为欧美制裁的原因，所有持有俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行股票的机构都得到英国金融监管部门的通知，必须在限定时期清空这只股票，多少钱都必须卖，否则限定时间到期，券商也会强行帮你卖出!
这就是俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行股价暴跌只剩点骨头渣的原因。
现在问题来了，正所谓有卖就有买，既然所有金融机构都被要求必须限时清空俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的股票，那么又是谁能在这个时候不受限制买入呢？
这个问题当时谁也不知道，反正我问了一下，普通投资者是肯定买不到的!也就是说，有一批神秘的金融机构，可以不受欧美制裁令的限制，按照俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行净资产打0.02折的价格悄悄买下了这家银行近40%的股权!
直到3月5日，我看到彭博社一篇报道，上述问题才真相大白，彭博社报道标题是这样——华尔街已经向俄罗斯廉价的公司股权猛扑过去!
报道截图就不贴出来了，大致内容我引用一下核心主题——
“随着美国及其盟友加强对俄罗斯制裁，并且遏制投资者对其资产的需求，部分华尔街公司开始买入俄罗斯股票”。
所以，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行股价暴跌就是一场精心组织的金融围猎。
一方面，欧美国家发布制裁令要求投资者必须在限定时期清空该公司股票，造成该公司股价暴跌；另一方面，拥有不受制裁令限制特权的华尔街金融资本却悄悄以极端廉价的价格买入这些被投资者不顾一切抛售的股票。
一个年盈利100亿美元，净资产700亿美元，客户覆盖俄罗斯10%以上人群的的最大的国有商业银行，被华尔街以9700万美元的价格买走了40%!
同样事件假如发生在中国是啥概念？
中国最大的国有银行是工商银行，目前市值大致是16800亿人民币，每年盈利大致是2500亿人民币，假如因为某场战争，因为欧美金融资本的巧取豪夺的围猎，我们的工商银行被外资以37.11亿人民币价格买走了!
这点投资，工行一周盈利就回来了。
(来源：环球网)
3月4日，美国副国务卿公开宣布，如果俄罗斯从乌克兰停火撤军，那么西方将取消所有因为俄乌战争增加的制裁。
如果这种事情真的的发生了，那么这些在欧美资本市场暴跌的俄罗斯企业股价就会很快恢复到原来的市值，现在抄底的华尔街资金，光是在俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的投资就将获得近500倍金额高达1000亿美元的盈利!
真是比抢钱还来得快的金融围猎啊!
那么，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行只是个案吗？
不是。
这一轮金融围猎是针对所有俄罗斯在境外上市企业的。
2014年克里米亚事件之后，因为西方国家的制裁，资金与技术都很难进入俄罗斯。没办法，俄罗斯只能将自己最优秀的企业放到境外去上市，包括最大的国有商业银行，最大的天然气公司(占有俄罗斯90%以上的天然气开采份额)，最大的化肥公司……
现在无一例外受到华尔街金融资本的围猎，企业市值都只剩一点骨头渣。
最大的化肥公司市值从百亿美元跌到只剩千万美元，把企业设备拆出来卖掉也不止这点钱；
别留念昨天了，把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢，没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想，那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会，你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡，但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人，就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本，并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者，不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌，也要优雅的谢幕，感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是：“不，可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的，不管你的境遇如何，你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难，都要继续前进，因为只有你放弃的那一刻，你才输了。 When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mothe凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风，大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明，在远古时期，火星曾经有过液态的水，而且水量特别大。[51] 土星是离太阳第六颗行星，直径120536㎞，体积仅次于木星。主要由氢组成，还有少量的氦与微量元素，内部的核心包括岩石和冰，外围由数层金属氢和气体包裹着。地球距离土星13亿公里。土星的引力比地球强2.5倍，能够牵引太阳系内其它行星，使地球处于一个椭圆轨道中运行，并且与太阳保持适当距离，适宜生命繁衍。当土星轨道倾斜20度将使地球轨道比金星轨道更接近太阳，同时，这将导致火星完全离开太阳系。[52] 土星是已知唯一密度小于水的行星，假如能够将土星放入一个巨大的浴池之中，它将可以漂浮起来。土星有一个巨大的磁气圈和一个狂风肆虐的大气层，赤道附近的风速可达1800千米/时。在环绕土星运行的31颗卫星中间，土卫六是最大的一颗，比水星和月球还大，也是太阳系中唯一拥有浓厚大气层的卫星。[53] 天王星是离太阳第七颗行星，51118km。体积约为地球的65倍，在九大行星中仅次于木星和土星。天王星的大气层中83%是氢，15%为氦，2%为甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氢化合物。上层大气层的甲烷吸收红光，使天王星呈现蓝绿色。大气在固定纬度集结成云层，类似于木星和土星在纬线上鲜艳的条状色带。天王星云层的平均温度为零下193摄氏度。质量为8.6810±13×102?kg，相当于地球质量的14.63倍。密度较小，只有1.24克/立方厘米，为海王星密度值的74.7%。[54] 恒星 恒星 海王星是离太阳的第八颗行星，直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米，公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似，质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦，内部结构也极为相近，所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。[55] 海王星有太阳系最强烈的风，测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是-218 °C，是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C，可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现，是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。[56] 冥王星，位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧，是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。[57] 直径约为2370±20km，是地球直径的18.5%。[58] 2006年8月24日，国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定，不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星，而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定，“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中，只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交，不符合新的行星定义，因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。[59] 冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳，冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成。大气极其稀薄，地面压强只有少量微帕。[61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星，是我们人类的家乡，尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星，但它在许多方面都是独一无二的。比如，它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星，也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤，表面温度：t = - 30 ～ +45。[62] 英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说，如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生，地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年，不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。[63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体，绕日运动。[64] 科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析，发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称，彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。[65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系，这学说，在原有的轨道(或称小天体轨道)上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行，而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后，这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道，行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。哥白尼想用“现代”(16世纪的)技术来改进托勒密的测量结果，以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里，哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置，但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想，哥白尼萌发了一个念头：假如地球在运行中，那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢？这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里，哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星，每一个行星的情况都不相同，这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。经过20年的观测，哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心，那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物，它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性，同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上，他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的，具体来说，他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系，即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心，就必须有它的边界，哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”，但他却保留了一层恒星天，尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题，但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”，他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动，所以哥白尼的宇宙体系，仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人，哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心，而是行星之一，从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命，是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑。哥白尼的伟大成就，不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路，而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。从哥白尼时代起，脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展。哥白尼的科学成就，是他所处时代的产物，又转过来推动了时代的发展。顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲，正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期，在这一二百年间，社会发生了巨大的变化。14世纪ndali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力，才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车，只有不断前进，才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心，最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉，并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用，就是让你快乐加倍，痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时，整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years
最大的天然气公司市值从455亿美元跌到只剩2亿美元，把企业天然气开采设备拆了卖也不止这点钱；
俄罗斯最大钢铁公司市值从160亿美元跌到只剩不到2亿美元……
估计这一轮金融围猎，全球投资俄罗斯境外上市公司的机构(以欧洲金融机构为主)损失在几千亿美元以上，而能够以骨头渣价格抄底这些俄罗斯上市公司股票的却只是少数华尔街金融资本……
回头来看，前期美国拼命拱火俄乌局势，在战争前期陆续给乌克兰提供近10亿美元的军火援助，与金融市场围猎收入高达几千亿美元相比，简直就是沧海一粟。
现在大家明白为什么每一次全球重大危机，总是大多数人损失惨重，而少数寡头财富却能急剧增加，靠的就是趁火打劫，不过这一次华尔街的吃相还是太难看了一点。
以上对境外俄罗斯企业的围猎只是毛毛雨，华尔街金融资本还有更狠的算计。
2.更险恶的用心
最近欧美联手将俄罗斯大部分银行都踢出了SWIFT系统，同时也给自己留了一个后门——这个后门就是做资源进出口贸易(主要是针对欧美国家)的俄罗斯银行还留在SWIFT系统。
留后门的理由看起来也是冠冕堂皇的。
假如欧美全面禁止俄罗斯资源出口，那么会导致油价暴涨，进而推高欧美国家已经很高的通胀指数，所以目前欧美国家还必须在SWIFT系统中给少数俄罗斯银行留一个后门。
但是，问题真是这样简单吗？
恐怕未必!
站在金融围猎层面，这种故意给俄罗斯能源出口开一个后门的方式潜藏着险恶的用心。
为什么？
现在俄罗斯是啥情况？
首先是卢布汇率暴跌，目前卢布对全球主要货币(美元、人民币)汇率基本腰斩。
以美元为例，战争前，1美元大致可以兑换60卢布，现在呢？可以兑换120卢布，也就是现在如果能将美元带进俄罗斯，买啥东西都是打五折。
这还没完。
因为卢布汇率腰斩，必然导致进口成本翻倍，俄罗斯除了能产粮食与能源，工业能力很差，基本工业品都要进口，现在进口成本翻倍，那么必然会导致恶性通胀。
所以俄罗斯央行为了应对恶劣的通胀形势不得不采取极端的货币政策——存款利率一下子提高到20%。
存款利率20%啊!贷款利率至少也要往23%左右向上跑，这么高的利率，没有几家企业能扛得住。企业破产就要找接盘侠，现在俄罗斯卢布汇率一副一泻千里的样子，哪家企业破产还愿意接受卢布支付？
那么现在全球主要货币最坚挺是哪个？
一个是美元，一个是人民币，欧元英镑汇率都有点跌跌不休的样子(但是与卢布相比还是好得多)。
可惜，因为俄罗斯主要银行都被踢出了SWIFT系统，人民币很难进入俄罗斯，所以唯一的选择就是美元，现在美元在俄罗斯就是最受欢迎的硬通货。
那么，美元能进入俄罗斯吗？
能!
因为美国给自己进口俄罗斯能源留着一个后门，这基本就是外币进入俄罗斯合法的唯一通道!
理论上，这个后门只能是采购俄罗斯能源，也就是俄罗斯卖出能源，然后收取欧美的货币(美元、英镑、欧元)。
但是，欧美是这个后门非常强势的控制者，所以有100种办法向俄罗斯输出更多的货币。
这些更多货币进入俄罗斯之后会干什么？
当然就是趁着俄罗斯卢布汇率暴跌、企业大批破产的时候抄底收购俄罗斯优质资产，具体折价幅度参考俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的案例。
因为能拿出美元、英镑、欧元等硬通货来收购的买主就那么几个，你不卖，大把人排着队要卖。
那么俄罗斯政府能够干预这种趁火打劫行为吗？
很难。
现在俄罗斯卢布汇率暴跌，要稳定卢布汇率俄罗斯就急需外汇，而俄罗斯央行的外汇又被欧美国家冻结了一半以上。
俄罗斯太缺外汇了，以至于普京都签署命令禁止俄罗斯公民携带1万美元以上外汇出境。
按：其实俄罗斯在开战之前对于西方国家可能的制裁也是有所准备的。包括央行外汇储备去美元化，提高人民币储备份额，提高黄金份额，甚至还储备了120亿美元的现金。
但是，有一个问题是俄罗斯绕不开的障碍，这就是进出口贸易的外汇结算问题。
俄罗斯能源出口主要就是欧美国家，中国份额还不算大，事实上也只有发达国家才能大量购买能源。
同时俄罗斯还需要从欧美国家进口大量工业产品，这就迫使俄罗斯央行必须在欧美国家开设账户，储备一定的外汇进行结算。
这一次没想到欧美这么狠，直接将俄罗斯在欧美国家银行账户上的外汇储备全冻结了，估计有3000多亿美元，超过俄罗斯外汇储备的一半以上。
因为外汇被欧美冻结一半以上，俄罗斯央行干预卢布汇率缺少弹药，市场也看出俄罗斯央行的窘态，所以卢布汇率才会跌得这么狠。
这么给大家讲吧，如果卢布汇率继续暴跌，俄罗斯央行采取任何货币政策都没用，没有足够的外汇储备干预，俄罗斯物价肯定暴涨，老百姓吃不起饭是会上街闹事的，俄罗斯政权能否保持稳定就是一个大问题。
所以，虽然明知道欧美为了能源进口故意开一个后门用心险恶，虽然明知道大量外汇从这个后门涌入就是洗劫俄罗斯优质资产，但是与社会动乱、政权稳定相比，即使这些外汇是一杯鸩酒，俄罗斯也只能闭着眼睛先喝了再说。
欧美金融资本对俄罗斯围猎计划就是这么天衣无缝、无懈可击。
所以，如果普京不通过乌克兰战争拿到自己想要的东西(乌克兰中立化、去军事化、去纳粹化)，俄罗斯未来将万劫不复。
外部有北约兵锋环逼边境，内部被欧美资本掏空了家底，这个国家还能有啥前途？
现在大家明白我为什么在过去文章里一再强调——乌克兰战争拖得越久对俄罗斯就越不利，我们不谈国际层面的政治军事博弈，看看俄罗斯国内，拖得越久，俄罗斯家底就会被欧美资本掏得越多，战事每拖一周甚至一天，俄罗斯都在失血啊!
绩效系统不够完善 在公司目前实施绩效管理过程中，对绩效计划、沟通关注度过低，而是过于看重绩效的实施和评价结果。部门经理在根据员工计划完成情况评分时，很少针对员工计划完成情况与员工沟通其工作中的优秀与不足。难以发挥绩效对业务的指导和管控作用，不利于部门和员工的整体提升，更会影响公司目标的最终有效实现。3.3.2 绩效指标不平衡 在公司绩效考核实践中，对销售指标、净利润率等财务结果指标关注较多， 而对如工程质量管理，品牌管理等非财务指标维度关注度较低。另外，在管理项目的绩效考核中，过于关注于项目实际的开发进度，而对企业要长久持续发展的基石，如部门和岗位的学习和发展等方面明显考虑较少。在2016年公司的绩效目标责任书里显示，只有三项指标占考核比重，分别是归属母公司净利润20%，签约额40%，项目开发关键节点完成率 指标设计与战略缺乏结合20%。指标严重的不平衡会对公司的发展造成不平衡、不稳定的风险。3.3.3 丽泽公司是一家区域公司，在承担首创置业总部战略发展使命的同时，也需要考虑自身产品线的立足与发展。丽泽公司也在置业总部的战略规划下提出了自己的规划，明确了发展的方向。然而具体到考核指标设计上，却没用应用规划来设定平衡计分卡指标，转化为丽泽公司实际的目标。由表3.1可以看出，总部下达的目标责任书一般只关注股东价值，是通用性标准，未能结合实际情况全面反映丽泽公司自身发展需要。而在部门级和员工级层面上，只是根据部门和岗位职责，进行例行性工作规划，没有联系到战略实施相关工作中，从而导致部门和员工不了解自身工作是否和公司的战略目标相关。原因有两方面，一方面，丽泽公司没有按照自己的战略规划，提出适合自己的平衡计分卡，并根据按照平衡计分卡的指标，落实到具体的战略举措；另一方面，缺乏对指标分解动作，即把平衡计分卡分解到公司、部门和员工三个层级，导致各层级的工作缺乏具体指引，企业的战略目标与指标设计是脱节的，没有正确方向的指引，所以难以对战略起到促进作用。3.3.4 考核缺乏科学性 每月以及年底的时候，在部门负责人对员工进行绩效评价时，因为怕员工情绪受到打分影响，以主观感受进行评价较多，以至于对部门内员工的绩效评价不能呈现正态分布。导致优秀的员工得不到应有的肯定，影响工作积极性，未对绩效表现差的员工予以及时的提醒指导，难以有促进作用，影响组织和个人的绩效提升。3.3.5 考核结果形式化 绩效考核只有与奖金激励挂钩的情况下才可实施有效。然而丽泽公司的绩效考核成绩与月度绩效奖、年终奖金分配并未有效联系，几乎是两个相互独立的系统。薪资中20%的月绩效奖金形同虚设，在实际评定中，几乎默认为是基础薪资，年终奖金分配一般都是领导根据主观意愿分配，年终绩效考核结果仅仅作为普通参考。因此，奖金不能根据员工努力程度，工作完成程度来分配。绩效考核逐渐流于形式，考核结果缺乏对应的应用，所以越来越得不到员工重视。3.3.6 缺乏对管理者和员工的培训 缺乏对公司全员的进行有针对性的培训，所以对绩效考核的意义、方法、形式，以及对考核过程中沟通的要求，难以使双方对统一认识，这样容易导致无法正确处理绩效管理中出现的问题，绩效考核失去了原有的意义，绩效管理容易流于形式，越来越得不到重视。3.4 平衡计分卡在丽泽公司的适用性分析 3.4.1 实现公司战略目标的需求 根据对房地产行业以及丽泽公司现状情况的分析，可以看到丽泽公司已从快速成长期逐步发展至规范化运营或者成熟期，需要更多的考虑绩效如何适应公司长久发展，现阶段所面临的重要战略性目标就是完成经营财务指标，产品的高品质与学习成长，建立综合体业务管理体系，提升组织管理能力，但丽泽公司目前无法将绩效测评体系与企业战略目标紧密相连，不能将企业战略目标落实到具体的行动，以及无法适应公司发展的要求。根据前文对平衡计分卡的分析和了解，此方法恰好适用于现阶段的丽泽公司，对于支持公司项目的高效运营意义重大。3.4.2 完善的内部组织结构和高素质员工 图 3.1 为丽泽公司组织架构，正如前文所述，丽泽公司员工普遍学历较高， 基本都为本科以上学历，相对完善的组织架构，有助于战略目标的分解，整体学历较高的高素质员工，有助于对平衡计分卡的学习和使用，是对基于平衡计分卡的绩效体系高效实施的有力保证。3.4.3 对非财务指标的需求 就目前丽泽公司现有绩效评价方法来说，对评价指标的设计指导不够具体是一项严重的问题。因为财务指标在管控时往往比非财务指标更加便捷，所以容易被更多选择。然而仅仅是财务指标还不够，还需要部门、岗位的学习和发展等非财务指标，这些非财务指标是企业长期可续发展的重要支撑。而这些指标需要通过平衡计分卡来建立。才能实现从优秀到卓越的快速转变。第四章 丽泽公司绩效管理优化方案 4.1 设计思路概述 要形成基于平衡计分卡的绩效管理方案，首先要从对公司战略进行分析，绘制战略地图，并用平衡计分卡具体表现出来。对公司的绩效目标一般划分公司级目标、部门级目标和员工级目标22。根据公司战略，分解形成财务、客户、内部运营和学习成长四个维度指标，分析公司实现战略目标的关键因素，通过价值树和鱼骨图方法这些工具的使用，获得公司级的关键绩效目标；再结合部门实际工作，深入分析公司级关键绩效指标。确定主要业务影响因素之后，部门绩效目标可以通过具体的职能得到，最后再具体落实到人。分解具体思路如图4.1所示。点击浏览下一页 图4.1 目标分解 然后对整体绩效优化方案进行设计，包括：完善的绩效管理流程，使得丽泽公司绩效管理变成全流程管理，而不只是战略目标和绩效考核，并有利于公司战略的实施、明确过程监督引导机制；另外需要一定的保障措施，促使绩效管理持续改善，逐步提升公司运营效率[23]。4.2 首创置业丽泽公司战略解读 在首创置业最新版的组织管理手册中，对丽泽公司的定位为“丽泽公司作为首创置业综合体运作平台”。城市综合体项目开发不同于传统的住宅开发建设，其本质是各种资源载体的综合运作。从发展规模上来看，丽泽公司未来5年规划开发管理资产规模由200亿元到500亿元，土地开发上每年保持新增1-2块土地，通过对经历项目的总结沉淀，建立综合体标准管理体系，夯实运营基础，实现有质量增长，逐步发展为首创置业综合体事业部。为实现这个5年规划，公司制定了职能战略如下：营销战略：做好产品定位策划，综合体品牌宣传；进行有针对性的营销推广， 充分利用项目的重要时间节点，进行集中宣传；创新营销方法，拓展多模式的渠道。商业方面，根据不同的商业档次、特质定位，采取不同的租售方案和价格策略，抓准入市时机，根据市场调研和目标客户的需求划分租售面积和位置，实现商业面积高效利用。成本战略：进一步优化和固化目标成本，实现动态成本管控，加大战略集采力度，实施精益运营，持续降低成本。设计限额控制，建立产品设计标准，降低设计与建造成本。合理控制营销费用，深度挖掘内部资源，巧用置业总部、兄弟公司、战略伙伴等资源，不盲目高价推广，实现客户资源最大化利用。设计战略：产品的检验看客户，获取可有效指导设计和营销的客户洞见，修炼内功、匠心打造，提升产品溢价能力。实现供给侧到需求侧的转换，通过市场调研，目标客群深度访谈等方式了解客户真实需求，不求做自己心中最好的，而是客户心中最满意最想要的产品，“得客户者得天下”。着力于用标准化的流程打造出能够满足客户个性化需求的产品，产品精益求精，效率节节攀高。缩短设计开发周期，扩大项目规模。客户战略：客户满意度影响到与企业利润实现密切相关，客户管理中最重要的目标就是提高客户满意度。对于客户有投诉意见，及时高效处理解决。财务战略：加强风险管控，严密监测房地产市场变化，以稳健的财务结构支撑公司业务发展。同时希望能够借助综合体不同业态的综合运作拓展多元化盈利渠道，实现战略转型；通过多元灵活的资产处置手段，在项目各阶段实现高利润回报；经由项目的创新运作，积累资本市场、合作伙伴等多维度号召力。土地投资战略：土地投资拓展是企业保持长续经营的根本保证；加大力度获 取适合公司开发的土地，2017年要获取至少一块土地；此后每年至少持续获取两块，目标是要在 2020年在规模上实现真正的综合体事业部目标。工程建设战略：工程建设上应以质量安全为核心，严格把控关键节点，制定并落实主项计划与专项计划，形成综合体项目工期标准，在控制质量和安全的前提下尽量缩短工期，扩张建设规模，争取现今至2020年每年度都有新地块开工。人力资源战略：基于共享价值的文化，未来公司要在人才激励和人才培养两方面加大投入力度，进一步激发团队活力；研究和改进员工组织内部职业生涯体系，加强专业人才队伍建设；持续建立透明、公开、公正的工作评价机制。从2016年60人逐步扩充到2020年200人的规模。通过公司项目的实践，培养一批综合体项目建设的业务拿手，成为首创置业综合体的人才孵化器，作为优秀人才输出到首创置业各个项目。丽泽公司BSC采用的是四个维度体现公司战略的传统模式，四维度内容具体如下：财务维度：此维度包含股东内部收益率、归属于母公司净利润、股东自由现金年度总额、经营性净现金流，签约回款等。此维度由丽泽公司营销策划部和财务管理部主责。运营维度：以项目工程、设计、成本三大部门的管理目标战略为基础，确认三个战略中重要把控点，即项目计划节点情况、标准化成果应用率、成本差异率。此维度由设计管理部、项目部和成本管理部主责。客户维度：根据客户战略，确定客户满意度、忠诚度和投诉完结率为指标。营销策划部(与客户服务部统称为营销策划部)承担投诉完结率这一重要指标， 反映投诉处理效率。因客户满意度关系首创丽泽公司品牌与社会认可，让客户满意不仅仅是营销策划部的责任，更是公司各部门所有人的责任，同时首创置业总部每年会邀请第三方公司对各公司的的客户满意度进行调研，每个部门都要不同程度背负责任。学习和成长维度：丽泽公司为实现学习维度的成长，从外部邀请讲师培训和内部知识分享两个方面提供公司人员素质和能力水平。这部分工作由人力行政部主责。关于成长维度，丽泽公司以“土地储备完成率”为这一维度的重要指标，对于政府待拍地块，积极进行前期可行性研究，市场调研、营销定位、成本收益测算、财务指标测算等工作。4.3 绘制丽泽公司战略地图 (1)全面提高财务目标 置业总部下发的BSC中明确规定了丽泽公司的考核目标重点是签约收入和会计净利润，共同促进股东价值最大化。签约收入主要是以销售产品来实现，对产品去化效率的要求。利润来源于产品的销售回款及资金周转等因素。另外客户的对我们的满意度提高后，以后更容易主动购买产品，就可以提升销售效率。(2)以客户价值为核心 产品质量的好坏需要客户来评价，以客户价值为核心，首先要充分掌握客户的需求是什么，根据市场环境和科技进步不断创新吸引客户产品，使产品的效能能够满足各类客户生活需要。第二，要注重品牌推广，扩大项目知名度， 建立与客户的长期联系，提高项目品牌认可度。第三，在物业管理方面，务必及时高质量的处理客户需求，在交付使用前仔细检查维修预防可能出现的问题， 降低客户投诉率，可以在产品交付前组织开展项目业主开放日相关活动，提前暴露并解决问题，降低交付风险。(3)优化内部管理流程 房地产的开发价值链包括如图4.2所示九大模块，整个开发价值链由于涉及环节广泛，容易受外部环境政策牵制影响，且开发周期长，对企业资金投入和内部的管理要求都比较高。点击浏览下一页 图4.2 房地产开发价值链 上图显示，从房地产开发项目开发的时间轴来看，下面开始到后期利润贡献和风险逐步降低，经营风险在开发前期最大，对项目的利润贡献越高，在价值链中段，是整个项目周期设计工程质量和成本的重点管控阶段，其中包括项目整体的定位策划，设计和工程管理以及采购管理，以动态成本管理和项目质量管理为重点。在价值链后段，经营风险减小，但是却严重关乎着品牌价值和客户满意度，不容忽视，尤其客户服务方面，要重视客户满意度的管理和提升。因此，根据公司的战略目标，在内部运营管理维度方面上应有如下三个方面的改进: 1)了解客户对产品的诉求，提高产品设计的标准化和创新性，提高前置设 计的效率，加快设计进度，缩短开发周期。2) 成本直接相关于利润，提高成本管理水平，便于股东利润实现最大化， 丽泽公司旨在提高目标成本核算水平，严格把控项目各环节的招投标管理等。3)提高工期进度和工程质量的管控，设计阶段和施工阶段严格把关、加强监督，尽量减少设计变更和安全隐患等问题，以保证各工期节点的按时完成以及工程安全质量的保证。(4)内部学习能力和组织管理效率提升 人才素质对对企业组织发展起着关键性作用。只有公司人员整体素质较高， 拥有较强的学习能力，对新知识的掌握能力，才能跟上时代和科技进步的步伐， 创造出持续提升的管理业绩，促进企业良性发展。丽泽公司的学习成长指标主要为外部培训和内部知识分享以及企业文化活动。一个优秀组织的发展源于优秀团队的培养，优秀人才的储备和善用。由于地产行业开发节点差异化较大，不同阶段对于人才的提升和业绩的奖励差异较大，所以人员流动性较大，培养员工能力、强化员工归属感，增强人才储备是大势所趋。储备人才将成为职能部门核心骨干，承担公司战略目标实现的重任。点击浏览下一页 图4.3 首创置业丽泽公司战略地图 1、施工前，应对施工区域内存在的各种障碍物，如建筑物、道路、沟渠、管线、防空洞、旧基础、坟墓、树木等，凡影响施工的均应拆除、清理或迁移，并在施工前妥善处理，确保施工安全。2、大型土方和开挖较深的基坑工程，施工前要认真研究整个施工区域和施工场地内的工程地质和水文资料、邻近建筑物或构筑物的质量和分布状况、挖土和弃土要求、施工环境及气候条件等，编制专项施工组织设计(方案)，制定有针对性的安全技术措施，严禁盲目施工。3、山区施工，应事先了解当地地形地貌、地质构造、地层岩性、水文地质等，如因土石方施工可能产生滑坡时，应采取可靠的安全技术措施。在陡峻山坡脚下施工，应事先检查山坡坡面情况，如有危岩、孤石、崩塌体、古滑坡体等不稳定迹象时，应妥善处理后，才能施工。4、施工机械进入施工现场所经过的道路、桥梁和卸车设备等，应事先做好检查和必要的加宽、加固工作。开工前应做好施工场地内机械运行的道路，开辟适当的工作面，以利安全施工。5、土方开挖前，应会同有关单位对附近已有建筑物或构筑物、道路、管线等进行检查和鉴定，对可能受开挖和降水影响的邻近建(构)筑物、管线，应制定相应的安全技术措施，并在整个施工期间，加强监测其沉降和位移、开裂等情况，发现问题应与设计或建设单位协商采取防护措施，并及时处理。相邻基坑深浅不等时，一般应按先深后浅的顺序施工，否则应分析后施工的深坑对先施工的浅坑可能产生的危害，并应采取必要的保护措施。6、基坑开挖工程应验算边坡或基坑的稳定性，并注意由于土体内应力场变化和淤泥土的塑性流动而导致周围土体向基坑开挖方向位移，使基坑邻近建筑物等产生相应的位移和下沉。验算时应考虑地面堆载、地表积水和邻近建筑物的影响等不利因素，决定是否需要支护，选择合理的支护形式。在基坑开挖期间应加强监测。7、在饱和粘性土、粉土的施工现场不得边打桩边开挖基坑，应待桩全部打完并间歇一段时间后再开挖，以免影响边坡或基坑的稳定性并应防止开挖基坑可能引起的基坑内外的桩产生过大位移、倾斜或断裂。8、基坑开挖后应及时修筑基础，不得长期暴露。基础施工完毕，应抓紧基坑的回填工作。回填基坑时，必须事先清除基坑中不符合回填要求的杂物。在相对的两侧或四周同时均匀进行，并且分层夯实。9、基坑开挖深度超过9m(或地下室超过二层)，或深度虽未超过9m，但地质条件和周围环境复杂时，在施工过程中要加强监测，施工方案必须由单位总工程师审定，报企业上一级主管。10、基坑深度超过14m、地下室为三层或三层以上，地质条件和周围特别复杂及工程影响重大时，有关设计和施工方案，施工单位要协同建设单位组织评审后，报市建设行政主管部门备案。11、夜间施工时，应合理安排施工项目，防止挖方超挖或铺填超厚。施工现场应根据需要安设照明设施，在危险地段应设置红灯警示。12、土方工程、基坑工程在施工过程中，如发现有文物、古迹遗址或化石等，应立即保护现场和报请有关部门处理。13、挖土方前对周围环境要认真检查，不能在危险岩石或建筑物下面进行作业。14、人工开挖时，两人操作间距应保持2～3m，并应自上而下挖掘，严禁采用掏洞的挖掘操作方法。15、上下坑沟应先挖好阶梯或设木梯，不应踩踏土壁及其支撑上下。16、用挖土机施工时，挖土机的工作范围内，不得有人进行其他工作，多台机械开挖，挖土机间距大于l0rn，挖土要自上而下，逐层进行，严禁先挖坡脚的危险作业。17、基坑开挖应严格按要求放坡，操作时应随时注意边坡的稳定情况，如发现有裂纹或部分塌落现象，要及时进行支撑或改缓放坡，并注意支撑的稳固和边坡的变化。18、机械挖土，多台阶同时开挖土方时，应验算边坡的稳定，根据规定和验算确定挖土机离边坡的安全距离。19、深基坑四周设防护栏杆，人员上下要有专用爬梯。[2] 注意问题编辑 1、雨期施工应注意的问题 应当说，土方工程应尽量避开雨期施工，这样可以减少人工和物资的投入，同时也有利于保证工程质量。但是某些工程的土方工程仍然无法避免雨期施工，这样就构成了雨期施工时应注意的问题。 (1)在雨期施工前，应专门做出土方工程的雨期施工方案，在这个方案中应详细制定保证工程质量和生产安全的技术措施。 (2)雨期施工前，应对场地平整时所建立的排水系统进行检查、疏浚或者予以加固。 (3)雨期施工前，要在基底边线以外修建排水沟、排水井，以保证基坑的雨水尽快排出，抽水泵应运到抽水目标，为了防止抽水泵使用中发生意外，应当准备足够的备用抽水泵。 (4)雨期施工过程中，特别需要注意随时检查用电设备的工作状况，防止漏电伤人。2、冬期施工应注意的问题 必须指出，土方工程应当尽量避免在冬期进行，原因很简单，冬期施工不但费工、费时，还存在安全问题。如果不可避免地必须进行冬期施工时，应当注意以下的问题。 (1)建筑物基础部分的土方工程，应进行全面的技术、经济比较，选定经济合理的施工方法，并应保持连续不间断的施工，以防止已挖掘的土重新冻结。 (2)冬期开挖冻土时，应采取防止引起相邻建筑物地基或其他设施受冻的保温、防冻措施。 (3)冬期施工时，运输道路和施工现场应采取防滑和防火措施。 (4)在挖方上边弃置冻土时，其弃土堆坡脚至挖方边缘的距离应为常温下规定的距离加上弃土土堆的高度。 (5)对于开挖完成的基槽(坑)应采取防止基槽(坑)底受冻的措施，例如使用保温材料覆盖。[3] 4.3.1 公司关键绩效指标 关键成功因素对保证公司竞争力，提升持续发展能力至关重要。公司战略要顺利实施，首要就是经营管理中完成这几项指标。所以，这些指标的选取，首先考虑的应是与公司战略相关，集中公司的资源去实现公司战略；其次，要定量化，对于指标要有可衡量性，评价结果清晰；同时，还具有可获得性，指标容易获取，与公司现阶段的发展水平相匹配。可以使用价值树和鱼骨图工具分析和识别企业关键成功因素。通过前面对战略地图的分析，得到财务、客户、内部运营和学习发展维度的战略主题，如表 4.1 所示：
3.全球金融市场的走向
现在让我们把目光回到全球金融市场。
全球金融市场开始出现一些有趣的现象。
俄乌战争之后，全球主要货币表现大相径庭。
比如，英镑跌成了欧元，过去1英镑大致可以兑换10元人民币，现在只能兑换8.3元人民；
而欧元呢？跌成了美元，过去1欧元大致可以兑换8元人民币，现在只能兑换6.8元人民币；
美元还是美元，美元兑换其它几乎所有货币都在走强，俄乌战争之后美元指数从96缓慢上升到98.91，呃，只有一种货币是例外。
这就是人民币。
俄乌战争之后，人民币是美元兑换汇率唯一走弱的货币。也就是说，目前全世界汇率走势最强的是人民币!
在这场俄乌战争中，人民币竟然成为全世界资金最受欢迎的避险货币。
为什么？
因为欧美国家自己坏了规矩!
它们不仅用制裁令对投资俄罗斯境外上市公司的普通金融投资者进行围猎，并且争先恐后去抢夺俄罗斯公民的私人财产，让全世界资金都感到恐慌。
最近网络上有一段不知出处的话说的特别好，这里转述一下：
"这两天感觉自己的世界观崩塌了，不知道是谁带的头，西方列强开始无差别的抢夺俄罗斯人的财产，这从根本上违反了西方市场经济的基本价值观。
普通公民的财产权，也就是物权法，在文明社会是高于国家主权的存在，私人财产神圣不可侵犯在全球化过程中是最深入人心的价值观。
但是，现在西方列强像鬣狗一样争先恐后的去抢夺俄罗斯人的财产，这是一个文明的坍塌。
现在的问题是，基于私人财产权不可侵犯这个共识基础的西方金融体系和市场经济体系，在这个共识崩塌之后，还能长久么？文明的崩塌，原来也就是一念之间的事情。"
这段话后面有个跟帖也很有趣，这里也引用一下：
讲个趣事:我认识的一些富豪圈已经在讨论要把他们好不容易润出去的海外资产和美元信托再想办法润回国内，正在润的那些也叫停了。
好多土豪被俄乌战争之后西方世界的骚操作搞毛了，对老牌发达国家“永远中立”的银行保险业的职业道德产生深度怀疑，担心中美哪天发生类似冲突，海外华人财产会被没收当美军经费。
毛子搅了一把世界格局和西方规则的浑水，露出一些底裤，吓坏国内土豪。看来打击资本外逃还得靠同行反向衬托。
过去在西方国家的宣传包装下，大家都认为把财产放在欧美国家是最安全的。但是一场俄乌战争将西方国家底裤掀了个底朝天，露出欧美国家的强盗本色。
所以，现在资产配置逻辑已经悄然发生变化——即使要在欧美国家配置资产，从安全的角度也一定要同时在中国配置一定数量的资产进行风险对冲，这就是人民币汇率现在走强，未来也会长期走强的核心逻辑。
4.预案和准备
最后，我们也要对西方国家这种巧取豪夺的强盗本色保持高度警惕。中国在海外也有巨额资产，根据金灿荣老师透露的数据，目前中国中央政府在海外资产已经高达8万亿美元，民间私人与企业在海外的资产也有8万亿美元。
未来如果台海爆发战事，我们也要做好西方强抢我国海外资产的预案。
解决办法只有两个。
一个是大幅度提高我国的国防力量。
海军、空军、战略导弹力量还要加强，并且在必要的时候展示出来，真理永远只在大炮射程之内。
今年，我国国防开支大致增长7.1%，不仅低于名义GDP增长率(GDP增长5.5%，CPI预计3%左右，两者合计就是8.5%)，而且军费在GDP占比还远远低于2%。
要知道印度军费开支GDP占比都达到2.4%，现在连德国都野心勃勃提出要让军费开支达到GDP的2%。所以，未来中国军费开支还要扩大，未来军费GDP占比最好能迅速达到2%左右。
(来源：解放军报)
一个是还要加强改革开放。
我们的国债份额还要大幅度扩大，把各国卖资源的钱、养老基金、产权基金等等都吸引进来，让我们也掌握西方国家大量资本，与西方国家形成你中有我、我中有你的局面——我在你那里有1万亿美元，你在我这里也有1万亿美元。
届时我们有枪杆子威慑，而且互相都抓着对手的资产，才能有效保卫我们海外资产的安全。
最后的最后，对于在美股上市的中概股数量还得要控制。
过去中资企业一窝蜂去美股上市，目前在美股大致有2万亿美元市值，未来一旦与美国撕破脸，这些企业就是华尔街现成的围猎对象。
所以，从去年开始，国家开始管控中概股去美股上市，部分涉及国家安全的企业也开始退市，这方面速度还要加快，俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行就是血淋淋教训。
5.总结
写在文章后面。
很多年前看过一部香港电影《喋血街头》，都是大腕出演，包括梁朝伟、张学友、李子雄、任达华等等。
其中有一个片段印象特别深刻，就是梁朝伟、李子雄与张学友塑演的三个香港小混混去越南西贡淘金，在搞到几只手枪之后李子雄带上张学友直接去金店抢劫。
抢劫之后还没来得及逃跑就被一队军人堵在金店门口。李子雄与张学友吓得赶紧投降求饶，然后才发现，军队根本不是来维持治安的，而是来抢劫的，军队操纵大口径机枪一阵突突就把金店员工屠杀干净，然后从容将金银珠宝抢得干干净净。
《喋血街头》军队抢劫的场面
本来应该是社会秩序维护者的军队，居然变成社会秩序的破坏者!
这个电影片段表达了什么意思呢？
在西方社会，当社会秩序的维护者发现自己统治地位已经出现严重危机的时候，它们不再会去维护现有秩序，而是会选择明火执仗抢劫追求短期利益。
当下的欧美国家对普通投资者进行金融围猎，对俄罗斯公民私有财产进行抢夺都是这个逻辑。
我们正面临百年未见的大变局，二战之后的雅尔塔体系正在解体，由欧美主导的国际政治经济秩序正在崩塌。
毫不夸张地说，现在的世界逐渐将变成大刘描述的黑暗森林时代。
以前讲人权、讲规则、讲私有财产保护都是大家有肉吃的时代才会讲的东西，而现在就是残酷的存量博弈的丛林社会，一旦你没有反击的能力，西方强盗们将扯下一切伪装，毫不客气对你进行赤裸裸的洗劫!
所以，现在的中国特别需要强大起来，从军事实力到经济实力到核武库，我们在任何时候都要保持对西方强盗们强大的威慑力，否则下一个被洗劫的对象就是我们。
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