Together ｜对于乐观偏差的理解
2021/7/15 12:50:27 性健康研究与教育

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     【TED演讲：乐观的偏差】

     Understanding the Optimism Bias

     对于乐观偏差的理解

     本文作者：

     Kendra Cherry, MS, is anauthor, educational consultant, and speaker focused on helping students learnabout psychology.

     文本译者：

     王梦娇，哈尔滨医科大学性健康研究与教育中心硕士研究生(2019级)

     While we often like to think of ourselves as highly rational and logical, researchers have found that the human brain is sometimes too optimistic for its own good. If you were asked to estimate how likely you are to experience divorce, illness, job loss, or an accident, you are likely to underestimate the probability that such events will ever impact your life. This is because your brain has a built-in optimism bias.The phenomenon is also often referred to as "the illusion of invulnerability," "unrealistic optimism," and a "personalfable."

     虽然我们常常认为自己是高度理性和有逻辑的，但研究人员发现，人类脑中的这种想法有时是过于乐观的。假如，当你被问及来评估一下自己遭遇离婚、疾病、失业或意外的可能性有多大，你很可能会低估了这些事件影响你生活的可能性。这是因为你的大脑存在着固有的乐观偏差。这种现象也经常被称为“不会受伤害的错误信念”，“不切实际的乐观主义”和“个人神话”。

     This bias leads us to believe that we are less likely to suffer from misfortune and more likely to attain success than reality would suggest. We believe that we will live longer than the average, that our children will be smarter than the average, and that we will be more successful in life than the average. But by definition, we can't all be above average.

     这种偏差让我们认为，我们不可能会遭受不幸，而是更有可能获得超出现实所认为的成功。我们相信，我们会比其他人活得更长久，我们的孩子会比其他孩子更聪明，我们会比普通人更成功。但是，无疑我们不可能事事都高于平均水平。

     The optimism bias is essentially a mistaken belief that our chances of experiencing negative events are lower and our chances of experiencing positive events are higher than those of our peers.

     乐观偏差本质上是一种被误解的信念，持有这种信念的人会认为自己经历消极(负性)事件的机会是比较低的，而经历积极(正向)事件的机会比身边的同伴要高。

     This phenomenon was initially described by Weinstein (1980), who found that the majority of college students believed that their chances of developing a drinking problem or getting divorced were lower than that of other students. At the same time, the majority of these students also believed that their chances of positive outcomes like owning their own home and living into old age were much higher than their peers.

     这一现象最初是被Weinstein(1980)描述出来的，他发现大多数大学生认为自己出现饮酒问题或离婚的几率是低于其他学生的。与此同时，大多数学生也认为，自己会拥有人生积极结果的机会要比同龄人高得多，比如，拥有自己的房子，颐养中年。

    

     From https://www.intheblack.com/

     The Impact of the Optimism Bias

     乐观偏差的影响

     The optimism bias doesn’t mean that we have an overly sunny outlook on our own lives. It can also lead to poor decision-making, which can sometimes have disastrous results. People might skip their yearly physical, not wear their seat belt, miss adding money to their emergency savings account, or fail to put on sun screen because they mistakenly believe that they are less likely to get sick, get in an accident, need extra cash, or get skin cancer.

     乐观偏差的存在，并不意味着我们是对自己的生活有一个充满啊阳光的看法。它也会导致糟糕的决策，从而会导致灾难性的后果出现。人们可能会忽略每年一次的体检、不系安全带、忽视在应急储蓄账户里存一些钱、或者不涂防晒霜，因为他们错误的认为自己不太可能生病、不会出现意外、不需额外的现金、也不会得皮肤癌。

     Cognitive neuroscientist Tali Sharot, author of The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain, notes that this bias is wide spread and can be seen in cultures all over the world. Sharot also suggests that while this optimism bias can at times lead to negative outcomes like foolishly engaging in risky behaviors or making poor choices about your health, it can also have its benefits. This optimism enhances well-being by creating a sense of anticipation about the future. If we expect good things to happen, we are more likely to be happy. This optimism, she also explained in a 2012 TED Talk, can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. By believing that we will be successful, people are in fact more likely to be successful.

     认知神经科学家Tali Sharot在她的《乐观偏差：非理性积极的大脑之旅》一书中指出，这种偏差很普遍，在世界各地的不同文化中都可以看到。Sharot还指出，尽管这种乐观偏差有时会导致负面结果，比如愚蠢地做出危险的行为，或者对自己的健康做出糟糕的选择，但是，它也存在好处。这种乐观主义可创建一种对未来的期待，从而来强化良好的适应感。如果我们期待好事发生，我们更有可能会快乐。在2012年的TED演讲中，Sharot解释了这种乐观主义可以发挥自我实现的预言作用，即借由相信我们会成功，人们实际上更可能会成功。

     Optimism also motivates us to pursue our goals. After all, if we didn't believe that we could achieve success, why would we even bother trying? Optimists are also more likely to take measures to protect their health such as exercising, taking vitamins, and following a nutritious diet.

     乐观也激励我们去追求我们的目标。毕竟，如果我们不相信我们能成功，我们又何必去费力的尝试呢？乐观主义者会更有可能采取措施来保护他们的健康，比如，锻炼、服用维生素和遵循营养饮食计划。

     So why are we so geared toward optimism?Experts believe that our brains may be wired by evolution to see the glass half-full.

     那么，我们为什么会如此专注于乐观呢？专家们认为，我们的大脑通过进化已经可以看到事情会存在好的一面。

     Researchers have suggested various causes that lead to the optimism bias, including cognitive and motivational factors. When we are evaluating our risks, we compare our own situation to that of other people, but we are also egocentric. We focus on ourselves instead of realistically looking at how we compare to others.

     研究人员提出了导致乐观偏差的各种原因，其中包括认知和动机因素。当我们评估自己的风险时，我们会将自己的情况与他人进行比较，但我们依然是以自己为中心的。我们关注的是自己，而不是客观来看待我们是如何和他人进行比较的。

     But we are also highly motivated to be so optimistic. By believing that we are unlikely to fail and more likely to succeed, we have better self-esteem, lower stress levels, and better overall well-being.

     而且，我们有很高的积极性来保持乐观。通过相信我们不太可能失败，更有可能成功，我们有较好的自尊，较低的压力，以及较好的整体幸福感。

    

     From: Brand New Images/Stone/Getty Images

     The Optimism Bias Conundrum

     令人迷惑的乐观偏差

     Optimism bias increases the belief that good things will happen in your life no matter what, but it may also lead to poor decision-making because you're not worried about risks.

     乐观偏差增加了你对生活中无论发生什么事情，总会有好事出现的信念，但这也可能使你做出糟糕的决策，因为你忽视了风险的存在。

     Factors That Make the Optimism Bias More Likely to Occur

     影响乐观偏差可能出现的因素：

     Infrequent events are more likely to be influenced by the optimism bias. People tend to think that they are less likely to be affected by things like hurricanes and floods simply because these are generally not everyday events.

     不常发生的事件会影响到乐观偏差的出现。人们倾向于认为不太可能受到像飓风和洪水这样的事情的影响，因为这些通常是不属于日常发生的生活事件。

     People experience the optimism bias more when they think the events are under the direct control and influence of the individual. As Sharot described in her TED Talk, it's not that people believe things will magically work out, they think that they have the skills and know-how to make it so.

     当人们认为事件是可以直接控制和个人可以影响的状态时，会更容易产生乐观偏差。正如Sharot在她的TED演讲中所描述的，人们并不是认为事情会被魔法般地解决，而是他们认为他们有能力和知道如何来解决。

     The optimism bias is more likely to occur if the negative event is perceived as unlikely. If for example,a person believes that getting skin cancer is very rare, he or she is more likely to be unrealistically optimistic about the risks.

     如果消极事件被认为是不可能发生的，那么乐观偏差就更有可能发生。例如，如果一个人认为皮肤癌的出现几率是非常小的，那么他或她就更有可能对患有该病的风险持有不切实际的乐观态度。

     Factors That Decrease the Occurrence of the Optimism Bias

     影响乐观偏差减少的因素：

     Research has also shown that people who are depressed or anxious are less likely to experience the optimism bias.

     研究还表明，抑郁或焦虑的人可能会较少出现乐观偏差。

     Actually experiencing certain events can reduce the optimism bias.

     实际上，经历某些事情之后，可以减少乐观偏差。

     People are less likely to experience the optimism bias when they are comparing themselves to very close loved ones such as friends and family members.

     当人们将自己与至亲至爱的人(如朋友和家人)比较时，他们不太可能出现乐观偏差。

     While researchers have attempted to help people reduce the optimism bias, particularly to promote healthy behaviors and reduce risky behaviors, they have found that reducing or eliminating the bias is actually incredibly difficult.

     而当研究人员试图帮助人们减少乐观偏差，特别是为了促进健康行为和减少危险行为，他们发现减少或消除这种偏差实际上是非常困难的。

     In studies that involved attempts to reduce the optimism bias through actions such as educating participants about risk factors, encouraging volunteers to consider high-risk examples, and educating subjects and why they were at risk, researchers have found that these attempts led to little change and in some instances actually increased the optimism bias. For example, telling someone the risks of dying from a particular habit such as smoking can actually make them more likely to believe that they will not be negatively affected by the behavior.

     在一些研究中，试图通过一些行动来减少乐观偏差，比如，对参与者进行风险因素教育、鼓励志愿者考虑高风险的实例、以及告知研究对象所面临风险的原因，研究人员发现，这些行动尝试所导致的变化并不大，在某些情况下，实际上还增加了乐观偏差。例如，告知一些人某些习惯(比如吸烟)会增加死亡的风险，而实际上会使他们更有可能相信他们不会因这种行为而受到负面影响。

     【本文出处：

     https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-optimism-bias-2795031】

     【注】图片来自网络，版权为所属者所有。

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