【管理锦囊】The Black Swans Circling P&G
2013/8/29 哈佛商业评论

     If you stand in the plaza of P&G's Cincinnati headquarters and look up, you will see something circling. Birds. Locals say they've been gathering for the last several years now. They're hard to see. And really who cares. But now that A.G. Lafley is back as CEO, it might be time for everyone at P&G to go out onto the plaza and look up.

     Those birds are Black Swans. Any one of them would be bad for P&G. Should they all prevail at once, God spare this once mighty corporation. These black swans are dangerous for two reasons: they represent changes that have the potential to overturn P&G's business models, and they are impossible at present for P&G to see clearly. Should these swans come down to earth they will feast on P&G the way eagles went to work on Prometheus. It won't be pretty.

     1. The new branding. We are watching the death of the big brand. It's a huge change taking place over many years. Big brands used to be guarantors of quality, consistency, solicitude. We trusted big brands, especially Crest, Tide, Gillette. Beside these airships, little brands looked like unscrupulous, fast-buck, con artists.

     2. The new marketing.We are watching the death of the hard sell. The Cluetrain Manifesto suggested we think of it as a conversation. This marks the end of bang-the-drum marketing, of the shameless recital of unique selling propositions.

     3. The new consumer. We are watching the death of the old model of consumer taste and preference. Consider those farmers' markets . This should put a chill of terror down the spine of P&G. For the farmers' market contradicts perhaps the most fundamental assumption of P&G manufacture and marketing.

     4. The new home.We are watching the death of the suburban home. Once this was a ceremonial enterprise, in which moms, mostly, labored to show that they were keeping up with the Joneses, riding the thermal of post-war prosperity, that this family was, in a phrase, "going places." Homes, meals, children, husbands, lawns, and especially living rooms were kept in a state of relative perfection. In the event that the day of status judgment was now upon us. Moms were ready. And they spend a small and constant fortune on P&G brands to remain so.

     5. The new beauty. If farmers' markets are frightening, The Dove campaign for Real Beauty should be much worse. This marks a fundamental shift in the way women are prepared to think about beauty and the products with which they represent this beauty. With some ambivalence and some back sliding, Unilever gets it. P&G is struggling.

     The good news is that black swans, if you can grasp them, turn into opportunities for category and product innovation. And innovation has been one of Lafley's great strengths. To be sure this is a guy with intellectual agility to rise to the challenge. The real question is whether he can take the rest of the corporation with him. If we see him marching everyone out to the plaza, that would be a good sign.

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