不可轻言的“必有一战”
2022/8/3 22:42:51 逻辑学
大国之间的战争，表面上是军队的较量，实则是国力的比拼，而更深层的，其实是时间的较量。
掌握时间主动权的一方，有着更充分的定力，不会轻易言战。
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1941年的7月，日本东京的海军省大楼内，几个参谋正在疯狂的翻箱倒柜，他们受命收集一切能搞到手的材料，以便草拟一份报告，告知日本决策层，日本海军在太平洋上击败美军的可能性究竟几何。时间进入1941年下半年时，日美之间的关系已经极度恶化，表面上看，双方的谈判还在进行，但实际上，此时的美国已经冻结了日本的在美资产，并宣布对日进行石油、废钢铁禁运。这两招，直接掐住了日本的命脉，此时的日本所剩下的道路只剩两条——要么彻底对美国屈膝，吐出其自日俄战争甚至甲午战争以来所有对外侵略扩张的成果，拱手交出东亚霸权。要么拼死一搏，对当时的头号工业强国美利坚发起挑战。前一种可能，是当时的日本没人愿意也没人敢接受的。于是可选的道路只剩下了一条，对美宣战。但这场战争究竟胜算几何，什么时候打合适呢？于是就有了文章开头的那一幕——日本海军的参谋们受命紧急拟定一份报告，估算对美作战的胜率。而这份报告最终得出的结论是：随着美国战争机器的隆隆启动和日本工业的“断粮”，日美实力差距将进一步拉大，如果开战时间拖到1942年以后，则日本无论如何不可能战胜美国。而在1941年年底以前，报告用的说法是“勉勉强强可以做到(ギリギリできる)”。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >日本对美开战的时间就基于这种认识被敲定了，" >41年" >月" >/span>日清晨，日本联合舰队突袭珍珠港，太平洋战争正式爆发。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5625" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SV3beicWroJWAZ1Ff49zE3mEY8luSgfBh9ibOyYnickM5JXZXKv2icrP5THQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280">" >span>" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >，从日本角度说，太平洋战争是“掐表开打”的，日本人就像是赶工上班一样，心急火燎的开始了这场“国运之战”。" >r />" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，在今天的人们看来，日本人认为赶在" >41年年末以前就能战胜美国的思路是夜郎自大、愚蠢透顶的。哪怕仅以质量一枝独秀的日本海军而论，其主力舰总吨位数在鼎盛时期也不过就是美国海军的七成不到，就凭这点家底，日本有什么自信跟美国人硬碰硬呢？" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >在当时，日本军界普遍设想的日美战争，不是二战中真正发生的那种两国死斗，至死方休的模式。日本对这场“必然发生的战争”的设想，是基于他们打赢的上一场大国之战——日俄战争的算法建立的。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >俄战争中，沙俄海军虽然强大，但远道而来的沙俄第二太平洋舰队，在漫长的旅途中被逐步磨光了血条，真正开到对马海峡时，只剩下了一架华丽的空壳，以逸待劳的日本人于是在对马海战中一战定乾坤。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7061469265367316" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SV2GfXiaqRoWmWqfIvppY11bLqP2vOkSj1o4XVvh544UND3gTeZecHGvQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="667">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >的沙俄虽然还有国力再战，但已经无心再耗下去了——远东并非沙俄的核心利益所在，犯不上与日本人在这里死磕，于是朴茨茅斯条约一签，沙俄就将东北亚的霸权转手让给了日本。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >洋战争爆发前的日本人就觉得，这历史可以重演么!你看老美和老毛子何其相似乃尔——沙俄是个巨人，美国也是巨人。沙俄的核心利益不在远东，美国的核心利益也不在东亚。沙俄核心区距离日本本土路途遥远，美国人打过来也要跨过整个太平洋。那么我们就用当年打沙俄的方式打美国就可以了么!具体方法是：" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >，“卧薪尝胆”、整军备战、保持一定的实力，军力上可以弱于美国，但不能被甩开太大的差距。" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >，在开战之后，迅速抢占西太平洋的所有岛屿群，围绕日本本土建立多重防御圈。" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >，等待美国人率领他们庞大的舰队前来反攻，利用多重防御圈逐次消耗美军的实力，并在时机成熟后，以一场“对马海战”式的决战一战定乾坤，歼灭美军的有生力量，迫使美国与日本媾和。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，这其实才是日本在太平洋战争中最初的战略设想——与同时代的希特勒入侵苏联不同，日本人再狂妄，也还没有狂妄到想去占领美国本土，甚至连攻占夏威夷都没有出现在其计划内。日本对美作战计划，始终是一个先偷袭、再防御、最终决战，逼迫美国人媾和的“翻版日俄战争”。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >解释了太平洋战争中日军很多看似匪夷所思的现象——" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，被日本视为“决战兵器”的大和级战列舰，为什么终整场战争几乎都没有真正参战，始终在后方趴窝看戏，成为日军口中的“大和旅馆”。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.9725" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVFD9N9dZl6Vsux3FsibgeSdxUbAUm5H2jS7kfV8SXHXeNibktd7N9Awxg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="400">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >如，在战争后期，美军的蛙跳作战明明已经如尖刀一般直插日本的心脏地带，日本国内甚至高层为什么还一派“问题不大”的认识，信心满满的在准备“最终决战”。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >的根源，在于日本人在对这场战争的构想上就犯了错误——明明选择了主动进攻，却梦想通过防守取胜。明明决定与美国撕破脸，却又幻想美国在遭受一定程度的皮肉伤之后就会服软媾和，拱手转让区域霸权，大家条约一签，回过头来，该咋做生意咋做生意。" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >构想的幼稚之处，在于日本明明将战争的主动权交给了对方，却又单方面幻想对方一定会按自己的思路来行动。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，如果美国人就是不就范，日本又当如何？这个事儿，赶工开战的日本人，其实从来没顾得上去想。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >上，哪怕美国不在珍珠港事变仅半年后就在中途岛打了翻身仗，哪怕美国在太平洋只是执行最小消极的防守战略——我不主动进攻你，你也没能力再进攻我，双方就这么对耗着，我继续掐断你的所有战争资源，同时在家里拼命爆兵、攀科技树……等上个几年，日本也同样会因为战争潜力枯竭而战败，甚至更惨，国家因为封锁而发生总崩溃。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.666" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVQ7YemVUviaZUBsZriaCz4zbp3ahfGHsmiaPbicb08OCGsuyfiaN54HyicJUw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >是为什么罗斯福会在开战后会从容淡定的选择“先欧后亚”的政策，主业打德国，业余时间对付一下日本的原因——因为日本战略上的愚蠢，让这位总统深知其已“无能为也”了。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，反思日本二战中这种诡异的战略思路，你又不能说它是完全错误的。至少，采取防守姿态，一旦战争开启，则执行分段阻击的战略，力争通过“虎口拔牙”让对方知难而退的战略。对于大国博弈中实力较弱的一方，可能是唯一可行的战略思路。后世地缘战略学家们给这种战略取了个名，叫“区域拒止战略”——我没有能力打你，但我有能力让你不介入我的势力范围之内。" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >追历史，我们发现，最早奉行“区域拒止战略”并获得成功的鼻祖，恰恰是二战中挫败日本的那个对手——美国。" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >看看曾经的美国是怎么玩转这一套的。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >r mpa-from-tpl="t" />" >ection powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;word-wrap: break-word !important;" mpa-from-tpl="t">" >ection style="margin: 10px 8px;padding: 8px 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 7.2px;transform: translate3d(35px, 0px, 0px);text-align: left;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">" >ection style="margin: 0px;padding: 4px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;display: inline-block;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(52, 52, 52);" mpa-from-tpl="t">" >ection style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 52);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" mpa-from-tpl="t">" >ection style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;transform: rotate(-45deg);width: 1.3em;height: 1.3em;text-align: center;font-size: 10.4727px;line-height: 1.5em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" mpa-from-tpl="t">" > style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;">" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>2" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>英美争霸战，为何“引而未发”？" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >目前全球舰龄最大的在役海军舰艇——美国的“宪法号”风帆护卫舰(" >S Constitution,IX-21)。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.562429696287964" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVP1QRZ2zDj4VyKgEHyQhM9cicjuyDAL9RoPGDfJYe3sDWJDZ2caKsZrw/640" data-type="png" data-w="889">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >人将这艘已经下水两百多年的战舰一直保留在现役至今，很大程度上是为了纪念他们曾经赖以崛起的军事、外交思维模式。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >在刚刚建国时，其实力相比于英、法等老牌欧洲列强是非常渺小的，而直到" >世纪末，西方当时发展出的可供选择的外交思路其实并不多。要么你实力强大，有资格挑战霸主地位，要么你实力弱小一些，依附、斡旋于列强之间，靠“间于齐楚”谋得利益。或者更高明一些，学习英国，玩“离岸平衡外交”(或称搅屎棍外交)，挑逗列强斗列强，维持大陆均势，从中渔利。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >这些诞生于欧陆的外交思维模式，似乎都不是为美国量身打造的，最适合当时美国的外交战略，似乎是另一种更独特、巧妙的思维。" >96年，华盛顿在卸任总统时，曾在《告别演说》中模糊的提出了这种战略：" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 15px;">" >洲有一套基本利益，它对于我们毫无或甚少关系。欧洲经常发生争执，其原因基本上与我们毫不相干。所以，如果我们卷进欧洲事务，与他们的政治兴衰人为地联系在一起，或与他们友好而结成同盟，或与他们敌对而发生冲突，都是不明智的。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 15px;">" >独处一方，远离它国，这种地理位置允许并促使我们奉行一条不同的政策路线。如果我们在一个称职的政府领导下保持团结，在不久的将来，我们就可以不怕外来干扰造成的物质破坏；我们就可以采取一种姿态，使我们在任何时候决心保持中立时，都可得到它国严正的尊重；好战国家不能从我们这里获得好处时，也不敢轻易冒险向我们挑战；我们可以在正义的指引下依照自己的利益，在和战问题上作出抉择。" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >为什么要摒弃这种特殊环境带来的优越条件呢" >/span>为什么要放弃我们自己的立场而站到外国的立场上去呢" >/span>为什么要把我们的命运同欧洲任何一部分的命运交织一起，以致把我们的和平与繁荣，陷入欧洲的野心、竞争、利益关系、古怪念头，或反复无常的罗网之中呢" >/span>" >/span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;color: rgb(2, 30, 170);font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6057142857142858" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVC12aOOUicKTFmfS5nHbKrAA9Jums130hUndr1wYsMAGw4Zdn1qY1N5g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="700">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >思维，在" >23年詹姆斯·门罗总统所发表的国情咨文中，获得了精简的提炼：“今后欧洲任何列强不得把美洲大陆已经独立自由的国家当作将来殖民的对象。美国不干涉欧洲列强的内部事务，也不容许欧洲列强干预美洲的事务。”" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.326" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVSRmKWtDsPoVtm8VicTWR3eNTOCOs5JUf7IHahSPesNpoRibJBGnEHc9g/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" />" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >的说，从华盛顿到门罗，美国决策层所提炼总结的外交战略就是达成“偏霸”——通过拒止欧洲列强介入美洲事务，来保证自己的安全，同时为自己的发展留下足够广阔的空间。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >到" >世纪初的“大白舰队”横空出世前，美国海军的建军思路也一直是为服务其外交展开的。就像“宪法号”所体现的，美国人对当时欧洲列强所喜欢建造的那种主力战列舰并不感冒，而更偏爱“宪法号”这种“小快灵”的护卫舰。因为这种战舰在一旦发生战争时，能够更好地对从欧洲远道而来的列强的商船进行商路破袭，进而完成“区域拒止”的目标。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >光从建军思路上看，建国之初试图发展区域拒止能力的美国人，就比百余年后为了“天皇出巡必须八匹马拉车”这种龟毛理由选择造战列舰而不发展航空兵的日本人高了不止一个层次。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，自称地缘得天独厚的美国，在执行“门罗主义”和发展区域拒止能力时，其实也有一个绕不开的" >G，那就是华盛顿所说的那个欧洲，对美国人来说其实并不远在天边，而是近在眼前。至少在整个十九世纪里，当时的世界首强大英，有一块很重要的殖民地，其实就安插在美国人的身旁——加拿大。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.6410256410256411" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVgGmDfwgkWUh53HzyrdPoicmoeIuWbFRicKSqbNCYibm3iciaK1voDDaoBXQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="780">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >意义上说，" >世纪的英美，围绕加拿大问题的矛盾，甚至比" >世纪美日在远东的矛盾还要大的多——英属加拿大与美国不仅领土接壤，人口同文同种，领土还十分辽阔。把这样一块英属殖民地放在那里，对于一直强调“欧洲不要干涉美洲事务”的美国人来说，真的是一个莫大的讽刺——你老美不是要为全亚美利加谋解放么？加拿大就在旁边，你怎么不敢打？" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，在" >12年，美国还没有把自己的崛起战略彻底想明白之前，还真动过加拿大的脑筋，这一年爆发的英美战争又被称为“第二次独立战争”，美国人在这场战争中的战略目标，就是完成独立战争未竟的事业，将英国佬彻底驱赶出北美。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.5630630630630631" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SV8UT0CcmXBszzCePbibNImxzFphByWnXu3AzZugRYuJNGlADFoN7zRIw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="888">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >争的结果，是让美国人失望的，英军长驱直入占领华盛顿，美国连总统府都被烧成白宫了。如果不是因为同时期欧洲拿破仑战争的掣肘，刚刚独立几十年的美国会不会重新沦为大英帝国的殖民地，恐怕都不好说。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.7046875" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SV3DaeurS7N7d8aKDWLqw35xF5EafB66HOxmTmgkY4d8iaqe09dCvnuWA/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="640">" >span>" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >过着一劫的美国人也想明白了——作为新兴国家，在实力尚不足够的情况下，不能强行与世界霸主英国去掰手腕。哪怕对方时在“骑脸输出”，其存在于自身要奉行的国策相抵触，也必须执行战略隐忍。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，在之后整整一百年中，直到美西战争爆发前。美国人在执行旨在拒止其他列强插手美洲事务的“门罗主义”选择的一直是一种微妙的，“坚定但温柔”(" >ntle and firm)的操作方式——一方面，门罗主义作为一个口号，是被拿来当做大旗打的。“美洲是美洲人的美洲”等理念历届美国政府都在重复。但另一方面，美国在具体执行时却并不急于迫使各列强赶紧卷铺盖走人。而是通过文化、贸易、移民、赎买等软手段，一点一点拉进自己与美洲邻居之间的关系，而让他们疏远远在大西洋彼岸的宗主之间的关系。用水滴石穿，绳锯木断的方式达成目标。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，与霸主英国和英属加拿大的关系处理则更为耐人寻味。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >上讲，作为两次爆发战争的前宗主与独立者。英美之间存在深切而复杂的“猜疑链”，且两国领土通过加拿大直接接壤，理论上说，美国在于加拿大边境线上陈列重兵，反而是较为正常的。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >美国偏偏没有采取这个策略，反而直到一战前都一直奉行一种“最小陆军”的模式。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >思路成功的转移了霸主英国的注意力，以至于在" >世纪中叶，英国即便在美洲，其眼中的头号对手也不是事实上实力急速增长的美国，而是跨过白令海峡、进入阿拉斯加，试图在美洲抢地盘的沙俄。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，英国此时未必不知道美国人的这种低调，打的到底是什么算盘。可是作为世界霸主，它在权衡外交政策时的算法是不一样的——英国要优先解决那些跳的最高，最急于侵犯自己切身利益的那些刺儿头(比如沙俄、法二、德二)。而对于美国在美洲扎起的那道若有如无的门罗主义的“篱笆”，英国人做出过数次“翻越篱笆”的尝试，美国也给予相应的不同力度的回击。但在" >12-1914的这一百年美国“超越期”当中，双方始终没有将关系谈崩到彻底撕破脸的边缘。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >人显然明白，选择直接挑战英国，即便能够成功，也将是损失巨大，且不明智的。而英国人也懂得，在美国具有相当的区域拒止能力时，与美国的开战，即便能打下来，扼杀自己这个潜在的对手，也会崩掉自己的一口好牙，让其他的追赶者从中渔利。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >明智的大国就这样彼此保持着模糊但始终对美国有利的平衡，就这样整整延续了一百年，直到百年后，美国人不仅获得了门罗主义的实现，还进而获得了世界霸权。" >ection powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;color: rgb(62, 62, 62);font-size: 16px;white-space: normal;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" mpa-from-tpl="t">" >ection style="margin: 10px 8px;padding: 8px 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;font-size: 7.2px;transform: translate3d(35px, 0px, 0px);text-align: left;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">" >ection style="margin: 0px;padding: 4px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;display: inline-block;transform: rotate(45deg);background-color: rgb(52, 52, 52);" mpa-from-tpl="t">" >ection style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;border-width: 1px;border-style: solid;border-color: rgb(52, 52, 52);overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" mpa-from-tpl="t">" >ection style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;word-wrap: break-word !important;transform: rotate(-45deg);width: 1.3em;height: 1.3em;text-align: center;font-size: 10.4727px;line-height: 1.5em;color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" mpa-from-tpl="t">" > style="max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box;clear: both;min-height: 1em;word-wrap: break-word !important;">" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>3" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>决定国运的是时间，而不是战争" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >太平洋战争前的日本和第二次独立战争后的美国，我们会发现这两个国家在目标上是相似的——都是力图得到一个区域霸主的地位，并画出一片足够大的势力范围，以便供自己的国力得到发展。两国选择的外交、建军思路也是相近的——都认识到自己目前并没有能力与首强打一场全面的争霸战争，而把对战争的目标定为进行“区域拒止”，一旦开战，则力求守好自己一亩三分地之上。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >明目标相近、手段相似，为什么美国获得了空前的成功，而日本却招来的了悲惨的失败呢？" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >这背后的原因，除了两国的文化、政治形态和外交环境等复杂因素之外。一个最重要的区别就在于，这两个国家，到底是将争霸战当做是迫不得已的底牌，还是急于出手，似乎过期不候的“王炸”。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >在积累国力的头一百多年中，门罗主义的观点虽然逐步被精英们普遍接受，但主流社会自" >12年之后就再没有产生过主动北上去跟英国掰掰手腕的想法。美国几乎将英国在美洲的殖民地的存在视若无物，将主要精力都投注于目前能以最小成本做成的事情上，购买路易斯安那，购买佛罗里达，购买阿拉斯加……所有的扩张都尽量顺势而为，谨慎的避免与列强尤其是首强英国发生碰撞的风险。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.676" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVwpMfvmfvHJvn9F7M1RCNVhwPZ1HsUiblcN4ykI0jkA0lgBVkp0Mib8ibQ/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500" />" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >日本，最晚自石原莞尔提出他的“最终战”的理论，把美日之间的冲突上升到“文明的冲突”，这个层级后。“日本与西方必有一战”，甚至“日本与美国必有一战”的思路，就成为了该国政治、军事精英甚至平民百姓所共知的纲领。日本这个国家，开始像掐表赶火车一样，心心念念的开始为那场“最终战”做准备，勒紧裤腰带造大和舰，勒紧裤腰带搞侵略扩张，所有的动作都像赶时间一样力图最快的完成。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >这样赶工的结果，就是导致了时间最终不会站在你那一方，最终就像日本海军省上交的那份报告一样，战争必须在某个时间点之前开打，否则就赢不下来了。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >mg class="rich_pages wxw-img" data-ratio="0.506" dasrc=ttps://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/E3R2kpnIkmN2KOZ5OQ1F3IeGxFOibx9SVlStFL8QGBwOmMdPzDicEEJec6PzRdXLj7kOic20kwsuRpaVd98U4cn5Q/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="500">" >span>" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >实证明，大国之间的战争，表面上是军队的较量，实则是国力的比拼，而最深层的，其实是时间的较量。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >、坦克、航母、导弹都不过是手段，离岸平衡、区域拒止，也不过只是花招。衡量国家兴衰的最终关键，要看" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >国力会随着时间的推移愈发增强？" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >人民会随着经济的发展日子越过越好？" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >科技、文化会因为培养、鼓励和吸引更多人才，实现更多的创新和突破？" >pan style="font-size: 15px;">" >trong>" >这些答案都对己方有利，那么你就可以自豪的说时间站在了我这一边，我们因之就终将获得胜利。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >比之下，“必有一战”就成为了一种操切、多余、甚至是错误的叫嚣。因为一个拥有无限空间和未来的民族，不需要急于通过一场战争来自我证明，时间会最终授予每个国家、每个人他最终应得的东西。" >pan style="font-family: 宋体;letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 15px;">" >，“真理在大炮的射程范围之内”，但更重要的“" >ection data-recommend-type="normal" data-recommend-tid="1" data-mid="" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;box-sizing: border-box !important;width: 562px;display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;">" >ection data-mid="" style="margin: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;overflow-wrap: 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